Unless
they aren’t.
But
they are, and the apocalypse is upon us.
Unless
it isn’t.
(Time
to put a couple of things into place.)
Articles
came around recently. Looked a lot like the ones that catch your
eye every two or three (or four (or thirteen)) years. Promised
an arrival of cicadas this year the likes of which we don’t often
get to witness. One of them claimed it would be the largest the
world has seen in about two-hundred-twenty-years, and that’s when
things went a bit wonky for me.
(I
mentioned a couple of things to put into place. So, before we
go too far along with wonky, the second item.)
Have
you ever seen or received those social media posts and emails
that talk about the months that have five full weekends? It happens
when the month has thirty-one-days and the first day of the month
is a Friday. When that combination occurs, five full weekends.
The emails present these calendar events as if it’s the rarest
of rare occurrences. Often it claims to be the first time in hundreds
upon hundreds of years for this month or that month. Couple of
problems with that…
First
– There are seven months with thirty-one days. Seven days of
the week and the regular rotation has these seven months starting
on six different days of the week. So, basic math without deep
investigation, six out of every seven years has at least one
month with thirty-one days starting on a Friday.
Second
– Yes, leap year creates a bit of an oddity, since you can have
a day that gets skipped when February 29th arrives and the days
shift the extra space the next year. But thanks to those shifts,
a month could reach a repeat of the five weekends thing in as
short as five years. (If you don’t believe me, check out December
2023 and December 2028.) And even when leap year extends a repeat
instead of shortening it, it’s hardly a glitch that takes centuries
to resolve.
The
idea to take from combining these things is simple… cycles happen,
the media likes to repeat stories and you can really exaggerate
things since most people will never do the math to realize a claim
is kind of batty.
Cicadas
run on all sorts of cycles. This year’s groups include some matching
up their 17-year and 13-year runs. And yes, in this case the match
works so that these two broods have not emerged at the same time
for two-hundred-twenty-one years. So, one point for the accuracy
of mathematical realities and exaggerated timelines in the clickbait.
(Don’t get used to it.)
The
problem I have isn’t actually with whether or not this emergence
will be the largest in two centuries. Nor am I bothered by the
people talking about how amazing it is that none of us will see
it again. Instead, my frustration is the story.
Every
time a lottery hits a fairly sizable number, we start hearing
about what the winner should and shouldn’t do. It’s the exact
same darn article being shared. Nothing new. Just represented
for us to click.
Ditto
the beginning and end of Daylight Saving Time, which gets really
fun when those folks that are easily swept away while never checking
facts cut and paste the information without noticing the dates
involved or clock movements they suggest we act upon are wrong.
At
least it’s not like anyone is overreacting to these things because
they actually believe a reward of special treasure awaits those
that share the news.
There’s
a chance that we will see hundreds of millions of billions of
trillions cicadas spend some time entertaining folks across several
American states this year. Maybe even the most cicadas to arrive
in a single year ever. (Or at least in two centuries.)
Unless
you’re planning a lot of travel in the areas where they should
be, however, the reality is they’ll be bothering you again in
less than twenty years. These things may not line up perfectly,
but—so to speak—annual things happen annually. Adjust the math
as needed (unless annual things happening annually is something
you don’t feel like checking).